MeritValue

Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc.

NAUTdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc. earns about -26% on equity, but has diluted owners by 49% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$50.3M1−$57.9M2−$63.7M3−$70.8M4−$59M4
Operating cash flow−$39.2M5−$45.8M6−$51.7M7−$59.1M8−$50.7M8
Capital expenditure$2.27M9$2.32M10$2.44M11$2.12M12$1.28M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$41.5M5−$48.1M6−$54.2M7−$61.3M8−$52M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$185.6M13$114.5M14$19.4M15$27.6M16$12.4M16
Diluted shares84.5M124.6M124.9M125.4M126.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$12.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.67
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.12
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $12.43 of net worth that earned you −$4.67 and generated −$4.12 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-26% avg · 5y
FY21 -14%FY22 -18%FY23 -24%FY24 -34%FY25 -38%

It earned an average -26% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+49% shares · 5y

Share count is up 49% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001808805-23-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001808805-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001808805-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001808805-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001808805-23-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001808805-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001808805-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001808805-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001808805-23-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001808805-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001808805-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001808805-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001808805-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001808805-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001808805-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001808805-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)