NATURES SUNSHINE PRODUCTS INC
NATRdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileNATURES SUNSHINE PRODUCTS INC earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.46 and $28.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $444.1M1 | $421.9M2 | $445.3M3 | $454.4M4 | $480.1M4 |
| Net income | $30.2M5 | −$390,0006 | $15.1M7 | $7.7M8 | $19.5M8 |
| Operating cash flow | $34.6M9 | $710,00010 | $41.2M11 | $25.3M12 | $35.3M12 |
| Capital expenditure | $6.67M13 | $7.63M14 | $10.5M15 | $11M16 | $6.48M16 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $27.9M9 | −$6.92M10 | $30.7M11 | $14.3M12 | $28.8M12 |
| Total debt | $4.84M17 | $2.35M17 | $018 | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $86.2M19 | $60M20 | $82.4M21 | $84.7M22 | $93.9M22 |
| Diluted shares | 20.3M | 19.3M | 19.5M | 19.1M | 18.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $87.48 of net worth that earned you $10.57 and generated $15.62 of cash last year.
It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.46 and $28.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth1.1%
- fcfBase$28.8M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth1.1%
- fcfBase$28.8M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$15.1M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $27.4 |
| Base | 1.1% | $28.46 |
| Bull | 6.1% | $34.08 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 1.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000275053-23-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010625 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012082 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016540 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000275053-23-000005 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010625 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012082 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016540 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000275053-23-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010625 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012082 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016540 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000275053-23-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010625 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012082 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016540 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000275053-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010625 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000275053-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010625 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012082 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016540 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)