MeritValue

NCR Atleos Corp

NATLdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NCR Atleos Corp earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $13.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.55B1$4.12B2$4.19B3$4.31B3$4.35B3
Net income$186M4$99M5−$150M6$80M6$162M6
Operating cash flow$449M7$274M8$355M9$344M9$356M9
Capital expenditure$80M10$58M11$108M12$87M12$117M12
Free cash flow (derived)$369M7$216M8$247M9$257M9$239M9
Total debt——$6.11B13$5.8B14$5.43B14
Cash & equivalents$238M15$293M16$339M17$419M17$456M17
Diluted shares70.6M70.6M70.6M74.2M75.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$53.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.43
Free cash flow it threw off
$31.61
Debt you’d be carrying
$718.25

10 shares is a claim on $53.31 of net worth that earned you $21.43 and generated $31.61 of cash last year, against $718.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 3%FY23 -0%FY24 1%FY25 3%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 11% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$247M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$247M
Earnings Power Value
$13.57
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$99M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001974138-24-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-049577 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012576 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001974138-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-049577 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012576 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001974138-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-049577 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012576 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001974138-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-049577 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012576 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-049577 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012576 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001974138-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-049577 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012576 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)