Namib Minerals
NAMMdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on fileNamib Minerals earns about 144% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 3 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.69 and $3.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $65.1M1 | $85.9M1 | $82.6M1 |
| Net income | $3.63M2 | $3.59M2 | $101.2M2 |
| Operating cash flow | $14.9M3 | $19.1M3 | $13.8M3 |
| Capital expenditure | $6.21M4 | $7.7M4 | $11.3M4 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $8.72M3 | $11.4M3 | $2.53M3 |
| Total debt | $2.41M5 | $2.52M5 | $5.18M5 |
| Cash & equivalents | $278,0006 | −$315,0006 | $1.89M6 |
| Diluted shares | 48.9M | 48.9M | 54.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $13.03 of net worth that earned you $18.71 and generated $0.47 of cash last year, against $0.96 of debt.
It earned about 144% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 11% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 115% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.69 and $3.04 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$8.72M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$8.72M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$3.63M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $2.24 |
| Base | 5.0% | $2.8 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $3.47 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-038838 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-038838 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-038838 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-038838 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-038838 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-038838 (CashAndCashEquivalents)