MeritValue

NATURAL ALTERNATIVES INTERNATIONAL INC

NAIIdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NATURAL ALTERNATIVES INTERNATIONAL INC earns about 3% on invested capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $4.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$178.5M1$171M2$154M3$113.8M4$129.9M4
Net income$10.8M5$10.7M6$2.52M7−$7.22M8−$13.6M8
Operating cash flow$20.8M9$11.9M10$7.02M11−$1.5M12$5.93M12
Capital expenditure$5.11M13$26.5M14$13.5M15$3.02M16$3.61M16
Free cash flow (derived)$15.7M9−$14.6M10−$6.51M11−$4.51M12$2.32M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$32.1M17$21.8M18$13.6M19$12M20$12.3M20
Diluted shares6.4M6.2M5.9M5.9M5.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$115.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$22.83
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.9
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $115.07 of net worth that earned you −$22.83 and generated $3.9 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 16%FY23 3%FY24 -11%FY25 -16%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$4.39
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.52M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001437749-22-022855 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-026521 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-030208 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-029731 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001437749-22-022855 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-026521 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-030208 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-029731 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001437749-22-022855 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-026521 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-030208 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-029731 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001437749-22-022855 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-026521 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-030208 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-029731 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001437749-22-022855 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-026521 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-030208 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-029731 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)