MeritValue

Niagen Bioscience, Inc.

NAGEdata completeness 75%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Niagen Bioscience, Inc. earns about 138% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 27% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$67.4M1$72.1M2$83.6M3$99.6M4$129.4M4
Net income−$27.1M5−$16.5M6−$4.94M7$8.55M8$17.4M8
Operating cash flow−$24.2M9−$15.1M10$7.12M11$12.1M12$13.5M12
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$28.2M13$20.3M14$27.2M15$44.5M16$64.8M17
Diluted shares67.2M69.7M75.0M78.1M85.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.03
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $8.96 of net worth that earned you $2.03 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
138% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -269%FY24 536%FY25 148%

It earned an average 138% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+27% shares · 5y

Share count is up 27% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$2.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006968 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009380 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009774 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001386570-26-000013 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006968 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009380 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009774 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001386570-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006968 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009380 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009774 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001386570-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-006041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006968 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009380 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009774 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001386570-26-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)