MeritValue

N-able, Inc.

NABLdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

N-able, Inc. earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.92 and $6.52 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$346.5M1$371.8M2$421.9M3$466.1M3$511.4M3
Net income$113,0004$16.7M5$23.4M6$31M6−$17M6
Operating cash flow$45.3M7$71.4M8$90.1M9$79.4M9$93.2M9
Capital expenditure$30.7M10$12.8M11$13.8M12$17.6M12$18.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$14.7M7$58.6M8$76.3M9$61.9M9$75.1M9
Total debt$677.8M13$674M14$670M15$666.2M16$787.7M16
Cash & equivalents$66.7M17$98.8M18$153M19$85.2M20$111.8M20
Diluted shares168.7M181.3M186.0M188.4M187.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$42.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.91
Free cash flow it threw off
$4
Debt you’d be carrying
$41.94

10 shares is a claim on $42.84 of net worth that earned you −$0.91 and generated $4 of cash last year, against $41.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 0%FY22 1%FY23 2%FY24 2%FY25 0%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 16% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.92 and $6.52 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$6.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.6%
  • fcfBase$75.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.6%
  • fcfBase$75.1M
Earnings Power Value
$0.92
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$16.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.66
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.11
Base8.6%$4.66
Bull13.6%$6.53

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834488-24-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834488-25-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834488-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834488-24-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834488-25-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834488-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834488-24-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834488-25-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834488-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834488-24-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834488-25-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834488-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834488-23-000039 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834488-24-000032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834488-25-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001834488-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834488-23-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834488-24-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834488-25-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001834488-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)