MARZETTI CO

MZTIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

MARZETTI CO earns about 18% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $53.66 and $405.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.47B1$1.68B2$1.82B3$1.87B3$1.91B3
Net income$142.3M4$89.6M5$111.3M6$158.6M6$167.3M6
Operating cash flow$174.2M7$101.8M8$225.9M9$251.6M9$261.5M9
Capital expenditure$87.9M10$132M11$90.2M12$67.6M12$58M12
Free cash flow (derived)$86.3M7−$30.2M8$135.7M9$184M9$203.5M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$188.1M13$60.3M14$88.5M15$163.4M16$161.5M16
Diluted shares27.5M27.5M27.5M27.5M27.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$363.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$60.88
Free cash flow it threw off
$74.03
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $363.23 of net worth that earned you $60.88 and generated $74.03 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 11%FY23 14%FY24 21%FY25 20%

It earned about 18% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $53.66 and $405.04 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$405.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$184M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$224.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$184M
Earnings Power Value
$53.66
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$142.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$70.43
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $224.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$101.5
Base20.0%$224.08
Bull20.0%$224.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000057515-23-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000057515-24-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000057515-25-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000057515-23-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000057515-24-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000057515-25-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000057515-23-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000057515-24-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000057515-25-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000057515-23-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000057515-24-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000057515-25-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000057515-22-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000057515-23-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000057515-24-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000057515-25-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)