MeritValue

MYR GROUP INC.

MYRGdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MYR GROUP INC. earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.43 and $56.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.5B1$3.01B2$3.64B3$3.36B3$3.66B3
Net income$85M4$83.4M5$91M6$30.3M6$118.4M6
Operating cash flow$137.2M7$167.5M8$71M9$87.1M9$326.6M9
Capital expenditure$52.4M10$77.1M11$84.7M12$75.9M12$94.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$84.9M7$90.4M8−$13.7M9$11.2M9$232.2M9
Total debt$9.01M13$81.1M14$72.5M15$148.8M16$118.1M16
Cash & equivalents$82.1M17$51M18$24.9M19$3.46M20$150.2M20
Diluted shares17.2M17.0M16.8M16.5M15.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$419.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$75.29
Free cash flow it threw off
$147.62
Debt you’d be carrying
$75.07

10 shares is a claim on $419.88 of net worth that earned you $75.29 and generated $147.62 of cash last year, against $75.07 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 15%FY23 14%FY24 5%FY25 20%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 1211% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.43 and $56.01 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$11.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$11.2M
Earnings Power Value
$56.01
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$85M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$84.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.19
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.19
Base0.0%$12.19
Bull5.0%$14.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000700923-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000700923-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000700923-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000700923-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000700923-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000700923-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000700923-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000700923-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000700923-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000700923-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000700923-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000700923-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000700923-23-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000700923-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000700923-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000700923-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000700923-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000700923-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000700923-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000700923-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)