MeritValue

Mynd.ai, Inc.

MYNDdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Mynd.ai, Inc. earns about -13% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$448.2M1$584.7M2$411.8M3$267.4M3$167.9M3
Net income−$1.1M4$20.5M5−$39.4M6−$95.7M6−$54.1M6
Operating cash flow−$21.9M7−$5.27M8−$2.36M9$786,0009−$45.5M9
Capital expenditure$1.19M10$829,00011$389,00012$1.28M12$94,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$23.1M7−$6.1M8−$2.75M9−$497,0009−$45.6M9
Total debt—$100.8M13$198.3M14$143M15$128M15
Cash & equivalents$33.3M16$29.3M17$87.8M18$75.3M19$18.5M19
Diluted shares426.4M426.4M428.0M456.5M456.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$0.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.18
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.8

10 shares is a claim on −$0.38 of net worth that earned you −$1.18 and generated −$1 of cash last year, against $2.8 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-13% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 4%FY23 -15%FY24 -29%FY25 -47%

It earned an average -13% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 27% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013188 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014832 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001708441-26-000055 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013188 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014832 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001708441-26-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013188 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014832 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001708441-26-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013188 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014832 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001708441-26-000055 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013188 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014832 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001708441-26-000055 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-052982 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013188 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014832 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001708441-26-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)