MeritValue

MAXLINEAR, INC

MXLdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MAXLINEAR, INC earns about -7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.48 and $0.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$892.4M1$1.12B2$693.3M3$360.5M3$467.6M3
Net income$42M4$125M5−$73.1M6−$245.2M6−$136.7M6
Operating cash flow$168.2M7$388.7M8$43.4M9−$45.3M9$19.6M9
Capital expenditure$39.2M10$41.3M11$13.5M12$17.7M12$12.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$129.1M7$347.5M8$29.9M9−$63M9$7.02M9
Total debt$306.2M13$121.8M14$122.4M15$123M16$123.6M16
Cash & equivalents$130.6M17$187.4M18$187.3M19$118.6M20$72.8M20
Diluted shares79.7M80.9M80.7M83.6M86.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$52.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$15.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.81
Debt you’d be carrying
$14.28

10 shares is a claim on $52.19 of net worth that earned you −$15.79 and generated $0.81 of cash last year, against $14.28 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-7% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 22%FY23 -7%FY24 -36%FY25 -22%

It earned about -7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 60% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.48 and $0.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$7.02M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$7.02M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.57
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.57
Base0.0%$0.57
Bull5.0%$0.85

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001288469-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001288469-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001288469-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001288469-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001288469-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001288469-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001288469-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001288469-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001288469-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001288469-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001288469-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001288469-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001288469-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001288469-24-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001288469-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001288469-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001288469-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001288469-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001288469-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001288469-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)