MeritValue

Mueller Water Products, Inc.

MWAdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Mueller Water Products, Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.63 and $65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.11B1$1.25B2$1.28B3$1.31B3$1.43B3
Net income$70.4M4$76.6M5$85.5M6$115.9M6$191.7M6
Operating cash flow$156.7M7$52.3M8$109M9$238.8M9$219.3M9
Capital expenditure$62.7M10$54.7M11$47.6M12$47.4M12$47.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$94M7−$2.4M8$61.4M9$191.4M9$172M9
Total debt$899.1M13$898.5M14$447.4M15$449.5M16$451.6M16
Cash & equivalents$227.5M17$146.5M18$160.3M18$309.9M18$431.5M18
Diluted shares159.2M158.0M156.8M156.9M157.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$62.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.17
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.92
Debt you’d be carrying
$28.67

10 shares is a claim on $62.33 of net worth that earned you $12.17 and generated $10.92 of cash last year, against $28.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 6%FY23 10%FY24 14%FY25 21%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 50% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.63 and $65 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$172M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$35.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$172M
Earnings Power Value
$5.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$85.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$13.08
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $35.48
The three cases
Bear0.0%$15.48
Base20.0%$35.48
Bull20.0%$35.48

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001350593-23-000060 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001350593-24-000079 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001350593-25-000066 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001350593-23-000060 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001350593-24-000079 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001350593-25-000066 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001350593-23-000060 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001350593-24-000079 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001350593-25-000066 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001350593-23-000060 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001350593-24-000079 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001350593-25-000066 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001350593-22-000061 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001350593-23-000060 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001350593-24-000079 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001350593-25-000066 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001350593-21-000061 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001350593-25-000066 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)