MeritValue

Microvast Holdings, Inc.

MVSTdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Microvast Holdings, Inc. earns about -31% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 75% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$152M1$204.5M2$306.6M3$379.8M3$427.5M3
Net income−$206.5M4−$158.2M5−$106.3M6−$195.5M6−$29.2M6
Operating cash flow−$45M7−$53.9M8−$75.3M9$2.81M9$75.9M9
Capital expenditure$87.9M10$150.9M11$186.8M12$27.7M12$19.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$132.9M7−$204.8M8−$262.1M9−$24.9M9$56.1M9
Total debt$13.3M13$46.4M14$79.2M15$111.7M16$106.3M16
Cash & equivalents$480.9M17$231.4M18$44.5M19$73M19$105M19
Diluted shares185.9M303.3M310.9M318.5M324.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$12.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.9
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.73
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.27

10 shares is a claim on $12.64 of net worth that earned you −$0.9 and generated $1.73 of cash last year, against $3.27 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-31% avg · 5y
FY21 -73%FY22 -29%FY23 -14%FY24 -36%FY25 -6%

It earned an average -31% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+75% shares · 5y

Share count is up 75% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 699% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001760689-24-000007 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001760689-25-000010 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018264 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001760689-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001760689-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018264 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001760689-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001760689-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018264 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001760689-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001760689-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018264 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001760689-23-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001760689-24-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001760689-25-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018264 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001760689-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001760689-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018264 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)