MeritValue

MICROVISION, INC.

MVISdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MICROVISION, INC. earns about -149% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 70% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.5M1$664,0002$7.26M3$4.7M3$1.21M3
Net income−$43.2M4−$53.1M5−$82.8M6−$96.9M6−$95M6
Operating cash flow−$29.4M7−$38M8−$67.1M9−$68.5M9−$58.7M9
Capital expenditure$2.49M10$4.36M11$1.94M12$374,00012$679,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$31.9M7−$42.4M8−$69M9−$68.9M9−$59.4M9
Total debt———$33M13$19.2M13
Cash & equivalents$82.6M14$20.5M15$45.2M16$54.5M16$32.4M16
Diluted shares160.7M166.0M182.8M209.5M273.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.48
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.17
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.7

10 shares is a claim on $2.03 of net worth that earned you −$3.48 and generated −$2.17 of cash last year, against $0.7 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-149% avg · 5y
FY21 -113%FY22 -61%FY23 -127%FY24 -279%FY25 -163%

It earned an average -149% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+70% shares · 5y

Share count is up 70% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 42% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-008335 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000783 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008898 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-008335 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000783 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008898 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-008335 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000783 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008898 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-008335 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000783 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008898 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008898 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-008335 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000783 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008898 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)