MeritValue

Murphy USA Inc.

MUSAdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Murphy USA Inc. earns about 88% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 27% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $265.03 and $286.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.4B1$23.4B2$21.5B3$20.2B3$19.4B3
Net income$396.9M4$672.9M5$556.8M6$502.5M6$470.6M6
Operating cash flow$737.4M7$994.7M8$784M9$847.6M9$813.9M9
Capital expenditure$274.7M10$305.3M11$335.6M12$458.1M12$439.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$462.7M7$689.4M8$448.4M9$389.5M9$374.3M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$256.4M13$60.5M14$117.8M15$47M16$28.9M16
Diluted shares26.6M23.9M21.8M20.8M19.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$319.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$241.01
Free cash flow it threw off
$191.69
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $319.32 of net worth that earned you $241.01 and generated $191.69 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
88% avg · 5y
FY21 83%FY22 127%FY23 89%FY24 63%FY25 79%

It earned about 88% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−27% shares · 5y

Share count is down 27% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $265.03 and $286.49 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$265.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$389.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$286.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$389.5M
Earnings Power Value
$266.68
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$502.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$131.59
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $286.49
The three cases
Bear0.0%$286.49
Base0.0%$286.49
Bull5.0%$355.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001573516-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001573516-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001573516-26-000090 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001573516-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001573516-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001573516-26-000090 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001573516-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001573516-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001573516-26-000090 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001573516-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001573516-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001573516-26-000090 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001573516-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001573516-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001573516-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001573516-26-000090 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)