MeritValue

MURPHY OIL CORP

MURdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MURPHY OIL CORP earns about 9% on invested capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $29.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.8B1$4.22B2$3.45B3$3.02B3$2.69B3
Net income−$73.7M4$965M5$661.6M6$407.2M6$104.2M6
Operating cash flow$1.42B7$2.18B8$1.75B9$1.73B9$1.25B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$2.46B10$1.82B11$1.32B12$1.27B13$1.27B13
Cash & equivalents$521.2M14$492M15$317.1M16$423.6M17$377.2M17
Diluted shares154.3M157.5M156.6M151.0M144.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$355.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.24
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$88.35

10 shares is a claim on $355.38 of net worth that earned you $7.24 last year, against $88.35 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 20%FY23 13%FY24 8%FY25 2%

It earned an average 9% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 48% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$29.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$407.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$23.99
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000717423-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000717423-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011709 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000717423-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000717423-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011709 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000717423-22-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000717423-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011709 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000717423-23-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000717423-24-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000717423-25-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011709 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000717423-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000717423-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000717423-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011709 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)