MeritValue

MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC

MUdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC earns about 8% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $53.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.7B1$30.8B2$15.5B3$25.1B3$37.4B3
Net income$5.86B4$8.69B5−$5.83B6$778M6$8.54B6
Operating cash flow$12.5B7$15.2B8$1.56B9$8.51B9$17.5B9
Capital expenditure$10B10$12.1B11$7.68B12$8.39B12$15.9B12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.44B7$3.11B8−$6.12B9$121M9$1.67B9
Total debt$6.12B13$6.12B14$12.3B15$11.8B16$12.1B17
Cash & equivalents$7.76B18$8.26B19$8.58B20$7.04B21$9.64B21
Diluted shares1.14B1.12B1.09B1.12B1.13B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$481.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$75.9
Free cash flow it threw off
$14.83
Debt you’d be carrying
$107.49

10 shares is a claim on $481.47 of net worth that earned you $75.9 and generated $14.83 of cash last year, against $107.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 19%FY23 -9%FY24 2%FY25 15%

It earned an average 8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 98% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$121M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$121M
Earnings Power Value
$53.99
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.86B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$90.68
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-02 · accession 0000723125-23-000054 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-01 · accession 0000723125-24-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000723125-25-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-02 · accession 0000723125-23-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-01 · accession 0000723125-24-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000723125-25-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-02 · accession 0000723125-23-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-01 · accession 0000723125-24-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000723125-25-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-02 · accession 0000723125-23-000054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-01 · accession 0000723125-24-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000723125-25-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-02 · accession 0000723125-21-000065 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-01 · accession 0000723125-22-000048 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000723125-23-000054 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-29 · accession 0000723125-24-000027 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-08-28 · accession 0000723125-25-000028 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-02 · accession 0000723125-22-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-01 · accession 0000723125-23-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000723125-24-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-29 · accession 0000723125-25-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)