MASTEC INC
MTZdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileMASTEC INC earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.44 and $94.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.95B1 | $9.78B2 | $12B3 | $12.3B3 | $14.3B3 |
| Net income | $328.8M4 | $33.4M5 | −$49.9M6 | $162.8M6 | $399M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $793.1M7 | $352.3M8 | $687.3M9 | $1.12B9 | $545.7M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $170.1M10 | $263.4M11 | $192.9M12 | $148.9M12 | $260M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $623M7 | $88.9M8 | $494.3M9 | $972.8M9 | $285.7M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $360.7M13 | $370.6M14 | $529.6M15 | $399.9M16 | $396M16 |
| Diluted shares | 73.9M | 76.2M | 77.5M | 78.9M | 78.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $414.18 of net worth that earned you $50.71 and generated $36.31 of cash last year.
It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.44 and $94.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$494.3M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$494.3M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$162.8M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $94.78 |
| Base | 0.0% | $94.78 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $116.51 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000015615-24-000021 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000015615-25-000021 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000015615-26-000020 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000015615-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000015615-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000015615-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000015615-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000015615-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000015615-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000015615-24-000021 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000015615-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000015615-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000015615-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000015615-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000015615-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000015615-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)