MeritValue

MINERALS TECHNOLOGIES INC

MTXdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MINERALS TECHNOLOGIES INC earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.18 and $40.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.86B1$2.13B2$2.17B3$2.12B3$2.07B3
Net income$164.4M4$122.2M5$84.1M6$167.1M6−$18.4M6
Operating cash flow$232.4M7$105.7M8$233.6M9$236.4M9$193.7M9
Capital expenditure$86M10$82.3M11$93.5M12$89.5M12$107.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$146.4M7$23.4M8$140.1M9$146.9M9$86.6M9
Total debt$1.95B13$2B14$1.94B15$1.94B16$1.92B16
Cash & equivalents$299.5M17$247.2M18$317.2M19$333.1M20$329M20
Diluted shares33.8M32.8M32.6M32.3M31.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$545.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.86
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.58
Debt you’d be carrying
$612.42

10 shares is a claim on $545.67 of net worth that earned you −$5.86 and generated $27.58 of cash last year, against $612.42 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 5%FY23 4%FY24 5%FY25 -0%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.18 and $40.33 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$8.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$140.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$140.1M
Earnings Power Value
$40.33
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$122.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.98
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.98
Base0.0%$12.98
Bull5.0%$28.41

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891014-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891014-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891014-26-000067 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891014-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891014-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891014-26-000067 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891014-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891014-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891014-26-000067 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891014-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891014-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891014-26-000067 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891014-23-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891014-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891014-25-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000891014-26-000067 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891014-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891014-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891014-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000891014-26-000067 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)