MeritValue

MANITOWOC CO INC

MTWdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MANITOWOC CO INC earns about -1% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.72B1$2.03B2$2.23B3$2.18B3$2.24B3
Net income$11M4−$123.6M5$39.2M6$55.8M6$7.2M6
Operating cash flow$76.2M7$76.9M8$63M9$49.2M9$22.2M9
Capital expenditure$40.4M10$61.8M11$77.4M12$45.7M12$37.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$35.8M7$15.1M8−$14.4M9$3.5M9−$15.3M9
Total debt$417.6M13$394.1M14$387.1M15$408.5M16$478.9M17
Cash & equivalents$75.4M18$64.4M19$34.4M20$48M21$77.3M21
Diluted shares35.5M35.2M36.0M35.7M36.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$192.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.99
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.24
Debt you’d be carrying
$132.68

10 shares is a claim on $192.61 of net worth that earned you $1.99 and generated −$4.24 of cash last year, against $132.68 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 -11%FY23 4%FY24 1%FY25 1%

It earned an average -1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 15% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$3.16
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$11M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.31
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019452 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024838 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057356 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019452 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024838 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057356 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019452 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024838 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057356 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019452 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024838 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057356 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-001624 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004241 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019452 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024838 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057356 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004241 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019452 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024838 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057356 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)