MeritValue

Metallus Inc.

MTUSdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Metallus Inc. earns about 13% on invested capital, and has bought back 24% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $16.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.28B1$1.33B2$1.36B3$1.08B3$1.16B3
Net income$171M4$65.1M5$69.4M6$1.3M6−$1.2M6
Operating cash flow$196.9M7$134.5M8$125.3M9$40.3M9$16M9
Capital expenditure$12.2M10$27.1M11$51.6M12$64.3M12$109M12
Free cash flow (derived)$184.7M7$107.4M8$73.7M9−$24M9−$93M9
Total debt$89.8M13$40.8M14$26.4M15$10.8M15—
Cash & equivalents$259.6M16$257.2M17$280.6M18$240.7M18$156.7M18
Diluted shares55.0M51.5M47.8M44.3M41.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$163.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.29
Free cash flow it threw off
−$22.2
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $163.72 of net worth that earned you −$0.29 and generated −$22.2 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 36%FY22 14%FY23 15%FY24 2%FY25 1%

It earned an average 13% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−24% shares · 5y

Share count is down 24% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 88% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$16.1
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$65.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022078 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029085 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-061042 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022078 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029085 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-061042 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022078 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029085 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-061042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022078 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029085 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-061042 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004348 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022078 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029085 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022078 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029085 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-061042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)