MeritValue

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.

MTSIdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.77 and $22.21 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$606.9M1$675.2M2$648.4M3$729.6M3$967.3M3
Net income$38M4$440M5$91.6M6$76.9M6−$54.2M6
Operating cash flow$148.4M7$177M8$166.9M9$162.6M9$235.4M9
Capital expenditure$18M10$26.5M11$24.7M12$22.4M12$42.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$130.5M7$150.5M8$142.2M9$140.2M9$192.8M9
Total debt$492.1M13$565.9M14$447.1M15$448.3M16$500.6M16
Cash & equivalents$156.5M17$120M18$174M19$146.8M20$112.1M20
Diluted shares70.5M71.2M71.5M73.6M74.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$179.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.33
Free cash flow it threw off
$26.06
Debt you’d be carrying
$67.66

10 shares is a claim on $179.37 of net worth that earned you −$7.33 and generated $26.06 of cash last year, against $67.66 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 20%FY23 8%FY24 6%FY25 -1%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.77 and $22.21 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$20.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$142.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$22.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$142.2M
Earnings Power Value
$10.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$76.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $22.21
The three cases
Bear0.0%$22.21
Base0.0%$22.21
Bull5.0%$28.86

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001493594-23-000081 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001493594-24-000060 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001493594-25-000054 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001493594-23-000081 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001493594-24-000060 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001493594-25-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001493594-23-000081 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001493594-24-000060 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001493594-25-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001493594-23-000081 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001493594-24-000060 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001493594-25-000054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001493594-22-000047 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001493594-23-000081 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001493594-24-000060 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-27 · accession 0001493594-25-000054 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001493594-22-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001493594-23-000081 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001493594-24-000060 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-27 · accession 0001493594-25-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)