MeritValue

MATRIX SERVICE CO

MTRXdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

MATRIX SERVICE CO earns about -32% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $48.21 and $51.6 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$707.8M1$795M2$728.2M3$769.3M3$873.6M3
Net income−$63.9M4−$52.4M5−$25M6−$29.5M6−$2.58M6
Operating cash flow−$54.2M7$10.2M8$72.6M9$117.5M9$6.91M9
Capital expenditure$3.35M10$9.01M11$6.99M12$7.69M12$5.48M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$57.5M7$1.24M8$65.6M9$109.8M9$1.42M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$52.4M13$54.8M14$115.6M15$224.6M16$223M16
Diluted shares26.7M27.0M27.4M27.8M28.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$50.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.91
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.5
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $50.13 of net worth that earned you −$0.91 and generated $0.5 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-32% avg · 5y
FY22 -25%FY23 -32%FY24 -39%FY25 —FY26 —

It earned about -32% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $48.21 and $51.6 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$51.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$65.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$48.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$65.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.06%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $48.21
The three cases
Bear0.0%$40.37
Base5.0%$48.21
Bull10.0%$57.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000866273-24-000092 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000866273-25-000069 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000866273-26-000057 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000866273-24-000092 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000866273-25-000069 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000866273-26-000057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000866273-24-000092 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000866273-25-000069 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000866273-26-000057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000866273-24-000092 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000866273-25-000069 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000866273-26-000057 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000866273-23-000058 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000866273-24-000092 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000866273-25-000069 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0000866273-26-000057 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)