MeritValue

MATRIX SERVICE CO

MTRXdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

MATRIX SERVICE CO earns about -28% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $50 and $53.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$673.4M1$707.8M2$795M3$728.2M3$769.3M3
Net income−$31.2M4−$63.9M5−$52.4M6−$25M6−$29.5M6
Operating cash flow−$2.97M7−$54.2M8$10.2M9$72.6M9$117.5M9
Capital expenditure$4.35M10$3.35M11$9.01M12$6.99M12$7.69M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$7.33M7−$57.5M8$1.24M9$65.6M9$109.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$83.9M13$52.4M14$54.8M15$115.6M16$224.6M16
Diluted shares26.5M26.7M27.0M27.4M27.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$51.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$10.61
Free cash flow it threw off
$39.54
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $51.39 of net worth that earned you −$10.61 and generated $39.54 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-28% avg · 5y
FY21 -16%FY22 -25%FY23 -32%FY24 -39%FY25 —

It earned about -28% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $50 and $53.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$53.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$65.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$50
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$65.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $50
The three cases
Bear0.0%$41.83
Base5.0%$50
Bull10.0%$59.77

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000866273-23-000058 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000866273-24-000092 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000866273-25-000069 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000866273-23-000058 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000866273-24-000092 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000866273-25-000069 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000866273-23-000058 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000866273-24-000092 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000866273-25-000069 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000866273-23-000058 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000866273-24-000092 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000866273-25-000069 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000866273-22-000105 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000866273-23-000058 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000866273-24-000092 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000866273-25-000069 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)