MeritValue

VAIL RESORTS INC

MTNdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

VAIL RESORTS INC earns about 6% on invested capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $74.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.91B1$2.53B2$2.89B3$2.89B3$2.96B3
Net income$127.9M4$347.9M5$265.8M6$231.1M6$280M6
Operating cash flow$525.3M7$710.5M8$637.9M9$589M9$554.9M9
Capital expenditure$115.1M10$192.8M11$314.9M12$211.2M12$235.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$410.2M7$517.7M8$322.9M9$377.8M9$319.7M9
Total debt$5.8B13$5.54B14$5.65B15$5.58B16$6.91B16
Cash & equivalents$1.24B17$1.11B18$563M19$322.8M20$440.3M20
Diluted shares40.8M40.7M39.8M38.0M37.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$114.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$75.26
Free cash flow it threw off
$85.93
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,858.21

10 shares is a claim on $114.1 of net worth that earned you $75.26 and generated $85.93 of cash last year, against $1,858.21 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 8%FY23 7%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 19% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$322.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$322.9M
Earnings Power Value
$74.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$265.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$43.97
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000812011-23-000047 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000812011-24-000091 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000812011-25-000104 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000812011-23-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000812011-24-000091 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000812011-25-000104 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000812011-23-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000812011-24-000091 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000812011-25-000104 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000812011-23-000047 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000812011-24-000091 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000812011-25-000104 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000812011-22-000040 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000812011-23-000047 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000812011-24-000091 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-31 · accession 0000812011-25-000104 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000812011-22-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000812011-23-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000812011-24-000091 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-31 · accession 0000812011-25-000104 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)