Meritage Homes CORP
MTHdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'revenue'
Meritage Homes CORP earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 87% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $28.01 and $107.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $737.4M1 | $992.2M2 | $738.7M3 | $786.2M3 | $453M3 |
| Operating cash flow | −$152.1M4 | $405.3M5 | $355.6M6 | −$227.6M6 | $118.3M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $25.7M7 | $27M8 | $38.2M9 | $28.7M9 | $25.7M9 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$177.8M4 | $378.3M5 | $317.4M6 | −$256.2M6 | $92.6M6 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $618.3M10 | $861.6M11 | $921.2M12 | $651.6M13 | $775.2M13 |
| Diluted shares | 38.2M | 74.2M | 74.1M | 73.3M | 71.3M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $728.21 of net worth that earned you $63.49 and generated $12.97 of cash last year.
It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 87% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $28.01 and $107.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$92.6M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$92.6M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$738.7M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $29.4 |
| Base | 0.0% | $29.4 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $33.89 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000833079-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000833079-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000833079-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000833079-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000833079-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000833079-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000833079-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000833079-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000833079-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000833079-23-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000833079-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000833079-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000833079-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)