MeritValue

Matador Resources Co

MTDRdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Matador Resources Co earns about 22% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $70.37 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.86B1$3.2B2$2.82B3$3.48B3$3.66B3
Net income$585M4$1.21B5$846.1M6$885.3M6$759.2M6
Operating cash flow$1.05B7$1.98B8$1.87B9$2.25B9$2.43B9
Capital expenditure$837.9M10$1.06B11$3.23B12$3.91B12$2.16B12
Free cash flow (derived)$215.4M7$915.5M8−$1.36B9−$1.66B9$269.6M9
Total debt—$1.16B13$2.21B14$3.33B15$3.4B15
Cash & equivalents$48.1M16$505.2M17$52.7M18$23M18$15.3M18
Diluted shares119.2M120.1M120.0M124.1M124.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$454.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$60.94
Free cash flow it threw off
$21.64
Debt you’d be carrying
$273.07

10 shares is a claim on $454.16 of net worth that earned you $60.94 and generated $21.64 of cash last year, against $273.07 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY21 38%FY22 36%FY23 17%FY24 12%FY25 10%

It earned an average 22% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 193% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$70.37
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$846.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$78.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001520006-24-000078 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001520006-25-000066 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001520006-26-000002 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001520006-24-000078 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001520006-25-000066 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001520006-26-000002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001520006-24-000078 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001520006-25-000066 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001520006-26-000002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001520006-24-000078 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001520006-25-000066 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001520006-26-000002 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001520006-24-000078 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001520006-25-000066 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001520006-26-000002 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001520006-24-000078 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001520006-25-000066 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001520006-26-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)