MeritValue

Match Group, Inc.

MTCHdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Match Group, Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.77 and $43.68 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.98B1$3.19B2$3.36B3$3.48B3$3.49B3
Net income$276.6M4$359.9M5$651.5M6$551.3M6$613.5M6
Operating cash flow$912.5M7$525.7M8$896.8M9$932.7M9$1.08B9
Capital expenditure$80M10$49.1M11$67.4M12$50.6M12$56.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$832.5M7$476.6M8$829.4M9$882.1M9$1.02B9
Total debt$7.76B13$7.67B14$7.68B15$7.7B16$7.52B17
Cash & equivalents$815.4M18$572.4M19$862.4M19$966M19$1.03B19
Diluted shares304.8M295.2M293.3M279.1M262.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$9.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.37
Free cash flow it threw off
$39
Debt you’d be carrying
$286.58

10 shares is a claim on −$9.66 of net worth that earned you $23.37 and generated $39 of cash last year, against $286.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 7%FY23 12%FY24 8%FY25 10%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.77 and $43.68 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$43.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.7%
  • fcfBase$882.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$36.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.7%
  • fcfBase$882.1M
Earnings Power Value
$21.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$551.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $36.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$23.28
Base5.7%$36.8
Bull10.7%$51.07

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891103-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891103-25-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891103-26-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891103-24-000014 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891103-25-000027 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891103-26-000025 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891103-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891103-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891103-26-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891103-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891103-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891103-26-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891103-22-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891103-23-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000891103-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000891103-25-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000891103-26-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891103-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000891103-26-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)