MeritValue

MMTEC, INC.

MTCdata completeness 75%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MMTEC, INC. earns about -262% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2086% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$568,6201$1.07M2$869,9353$1.87M3$807,5003
Net income−$7.05M4−$5.65M5$45.5M6−$91.2M6−$56.1M6
Operating cash flow−$4.1M7−$5.59M8−$5.15M9$722,8539−$3.69M9
Capital expenditure$37,06810$3,79211$97012$5,03612—
Free cash flow (derived)−$4.13M7−$5.59M8−$5.15M9$717,8179—
Total debt$356,27413$405,59114———
Cash & equivalents$11.2M15$3.81M16$1.76M17$2.87M18$8.19M18
Diluted shares2.5M437,13913.2M25.0M53.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.71
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$10.47
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $2.71 of net worth that earned you −$10.47 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-262% avg · 5y
FY21 -225%FY22 -75%FY23 -8%FY24 -303%FY25 -699%

It earned an average -262% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2086% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2086% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 14% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037425 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-030342 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-039499 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037425 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-030342 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-039499 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037425 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-030342 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-039499 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037425 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-030342 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-039499 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-021197 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-029574 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037425 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037425 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-030342 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-039499 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)