M&T BANK CORP
MTBdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on fileM&T BANK CORP earns about 33% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 23% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $168.89 and $1,406.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.99B1 | $1.53B2 | $1.48B3 | $1.54B3 | $1.66B3 |
| Net income | $1.86B4 | $1.99B5 | $2.74B6 | $2.59B6 | $2.85B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $2.72B7 | $4.57B8 | $3.91B9 | $3.61B9 | $3B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $149M10 | $214M10 | $256M10 | — | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $2.57B7 | $4.36B8 | $3.65B9 | — | — |
| Total debt | $3.53B11 | $7.52B12 | $13.5B13 | $13.7B14 | $13.1B14 |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.34B15 | $26.5B16 | $29.8B16 | $20.8B16 | $18.8B16 |
| Diluted shares | 128.8M | 164.0M | 167.0M | 167.3M | 158.8M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $1,837.45 of net worth that earned you $179.54 last year, against $822.46 of debt.
It earned about 33% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 23% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 270% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $168.89 and $1,406.5 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$3.65B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$3.65B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$2.59B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $364.28 |
| Base | 20.0% | $785.18 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $785.18 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017990 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006267 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000036270-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017990 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006267 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000036270-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017990 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006267 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000036270-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017990 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003804 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017990 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006267 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000036270-26-000010 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006267 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000036270-26-000010 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)