MeritValue

ArcelorMittal

MTdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

ArcelorMittal earns about 11% on invested capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $42.91 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$76.6B1$79.8B2$68.3B3$62.4B3$61.4B3
Net income$15B4$9.3B5$919M6$1.34B6$3.15B6
Operating cash flow$9.91B7$10.2B8$7.65B9$4.85B9$4.81B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$8.4B10$11.7B11$10.7B12$11.6B13$13.4B14
Cash & equivalents$4.22B15$9.3B16$7.69B16$6.4B16$5.39B16
Diluted shares910.9M805.3M819.3M768.5M761.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$715.6
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$41.41
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$176.19

10 shares is a claim on $715.6 of net worth that earned you $41.41 last year, against $176.19 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 29%FY22 17%FY23 2%FY24 3%FY25 5%

It earned an average 11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 60% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$42.91
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.15B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$81.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001243429-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001243429-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001243429-26-000020 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001243429-24-000005 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001243429-25-000017 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001243429-26-000020 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001243429-24-000005 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001243429-25-000017 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001243429-26-000020 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001243429-22-000009 (Borrowings)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001243429-23-000005 (Borrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001243429-24-000005 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001243429-25-000017 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001243429-26-000020 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001243429-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001243429-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalents)