MeritValue

MSP Recovery, Inc.

MSPRdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

MSP Recovery, Inc. earns about -474% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 181% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue—————
Net income−$24.2M1−$33.1M2−$7.42M2−$56.3M3−$360.5M3
Operating cash flow−$14,0004$2.25M5−$80.6M5−$40M6−$16.1M6
Capital expenditure$330,0007$481,0008$2.98M8$1.74M9$525,0009
Free cash flow (derived)−$344,0004$1.77M5−$83.6M5−$41.8M6−$16.6M6
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.02M10$177,38611$15.1M12$11.6M12$12.3M12
Diluted shares———356,5911.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,004.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3,599.5
Free cash flow it threw off
−$166.21
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1,004.32 of net worth that earned you −$3,599.5 and generated −$166.21 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-474% avg · 5y
FY20 —FY21 —FY22 -239%FY23 -165%FY24 -1018%

It earned an average -474% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+181% shares · 5y

Share count is up 181% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-034839 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-044197 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-054434 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-034839 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-044197 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-054434 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-034839 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-044197 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-054434 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-21-146901 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-22-013437 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-054434 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)