MeritValue

MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC

MSMdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $47.94 and $291.6 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.24B1$3.69B2$4.01B3$3.82B3$3.77B3
Net income$216.9M4$339.8M5$343.2M6$258.6M6$199.3M6
Operating cash flow$224.5M7$246.2M8$699.6M9$410.7M9$333.7M9
Capital expenditure$53.7M10$61.4M11$92.5M12$99.4M12$92.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$170.7M7$184.8M8$607.1M9$311.3M9$240.9M9
Total debt$1.57B13$1.59B14$907.7M15$1.02B16$970.5M16
Cash & equivalents$40.5M17$43.5M18$50.1M19$29.6M20$56.2M20
Diluted shares56.1M56.0M56.2M56.4M55.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$248.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$35.66
Free cash flow it threw off
$43.1
Debt you’d be carrying
$173.63

10 shares is a claim on $248.36 of net worth that earned you $35.66 and generated $43.1 of cash last year, against $173.63 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 12%FY23 15%FY24 11%FY25 9%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 38% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $47.94 and $291.6 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$291.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth19.0%
  • fcfBase$311.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$158.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth19.0%
  • fcfBase$311.3M
Earnings Power Value
$47.94
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$258.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$44.67
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years19.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $158.21
The three cases
Bear0.0%$63.22
Base19.0%$158.21
Bull20.0%$165.22

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 19.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001003078-23-000102 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-03 · accession 0001003078-24-000107 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-02 · accession 0001003078-25-000123 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001003078-23-000102 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-03 · accession 0001003078-24-000107 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-02 · accession 0001003078-25-000123 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001003078-23-000102 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-03 · accession 0001003078-24-000107 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-02 · accession 0001003078-25-000123 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001003078-23-000102 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-03 · accession 0001003078-24-000107 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-02 · accession 0001003078-25-000123 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001003078-22-000127 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-03 · accession 0001003078-23-000102 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-02 · accession 0001003078-24-000107 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001003078-25-000123 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001003078-22-000127 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-03 · accession 0001003078-23-000102 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-02 · accession 0001003078-24-000107 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001003078-25-000123 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)