MeritValue

MSC INCOME FUND, INC.

MSIFdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

MSC INCOME FUND, INC. earns about 10% on equity, and has bought back 42% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $14.76 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$73.6M1$45.6M2$66.2M3$56.6M3$88.7M3
Operating cash flow−$191.1M4$76.7M5$50.2M6−$28.1M6−$70.4M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—$470.5M7$484.8M8$565.1M9$602.8M9
Cash & equivalents$25.8M10$21.3M11$30.8M12$28.4M13$20.6M13
Diluted shares79.9M40.0M40.1M40.2M46.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$158.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.08
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$129.63

10 shares is a claim on $158.86 of net worth that earned you $19.08 last year, against $129.63 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
10% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 7%FY23 11%FY24 9%FY25 12%

It earned an average 10% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−42% shares · 5y

Share count is down 42% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 28% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$14.76
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$66.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21.8
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001535778-24-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001535778-25-000073 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001535778-26-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001535778-24-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001535778-25-000073 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001535778-26-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001535778-24-000020 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001535778-25-000073 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001535778-26-000026 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001535778-25-000073 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001535778-24-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001535778-25-000073 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001535778-26-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)