MeritValue

Motorola Solutions, Inc.

MSIdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Motorola Solutions, Inc. earns about 31% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $96.7 and $331.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.17B1$9.11B2$9.98B3$10.8B3$11.7B3
Net income$1.25B4$1.36B5$1.71B6$1.58B6$2.15B6
Operating cash flow$1.84B7$1.82B8$2.04B9$2.39B9$2.84B9
Capital expenditure$243M10$256M11$253M12$257M12$265M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.59B7$1.57B8$1.79B9$2.13B9$2.57B9
Total debt$5.69B13$6.02B14$7.33B15$6.32B16$9.16B16
Cash & equivalents$1.87B17$1.33B18$1.71B19$2.1B20$1.17B20
Diluted shares173.6M171.9M172.1M170.8M169.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$142.6
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$127.46
Free cash flow it threw off
$152.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$542.13

10 shares is a claim on $142.6 of net worth that earned you $127.46 and generated $152.19 of cash last year, against $542.13 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
31% avg · 5y
FY21 38%FY22 33%FY23 30%FY24 31%FY25 23%

It earned about 31% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 61% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $96.7 and $331.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$331.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.8%
  • fcfBase$2.13B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$238.76
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.8%
  • fcfBase$2.13B
Earnings Power Value
$96.7
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.58B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$63.96
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $238.76
The three cases
Bear0.0%$133.1
Base10.8%$238.76
Bull15.8%$302.63

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000068505-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000068505-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000068505-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000068505-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000068505-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000068505-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000068505-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000068505-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000068505-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000068505-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000068505-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000068505-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000068505-23-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000068505-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000068505-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000068505-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000068505-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000068505-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000068505-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000068505-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)