MeritValue

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp.

MSGSdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $20.15 and $46.98 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$821.4M1$887.4M2$1.03B3$1.04B3$1.15B3
Net income$51.1M4$47.8M5$58.8M6−$22.4M6$7.76M6
Operating cash flow$178.1M7$152.5M8$92.1M9$91.6M9$62.7M9
Capital expenditure$932,00010$1.18M11$1.45M12$3.62M12$1.41M12
Free cash flow (derived)$177.1M7$151.3M8$90.7M9$88M9$61.3M9
Total debt$250M13$325M14$305M15$291M16$258.5M16
Cash & equivalents$91M17$40.4M18$89.1M19$144.6M19$164.5M19
Diluted shares24.4M24.2M24.1M24.1M24.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$108.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.2
Free cash flow it threw off
$25.26
Debt you’d be carrying
$106.59

10 shares is a claim on −$108.57 of net worth that earned you $3.2 and generated $25.26 of cash last year, against $106.59 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.15 and $46.98 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$43.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$88M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$46.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$88M
Earnings Power Value
$20.15
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$47.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.06%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $46.98
The three cases
Bear0.0%$46.98
Base0.0%$46.98
Bull5.0%$59.26

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001636519-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001636519-25-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-056812 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001636519-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001636519-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-056812 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001636519-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001636519-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-056812 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001636519-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001636519-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-056812 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001636519-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001636519-24-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001636519-25-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-056812 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001636519-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001636519-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-056812 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)