MeritValue

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp.

MSGSdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $20.56 and $66.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$415.7M1$821.4M2$887.4M3$1.03B3$1.04B3
Net income−$14M4$51.1M5$47.8M6$58.8M6−$22.4M6
Operating cash flow−$35.3M7$178.1M8$152.5M9$92.1M9$91.6M9
Capital expenditure$466,00010$932,00011$1.18M12$1.45M12$3.62M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$35.8M7$177.1M8$151.3M9$90.7M9$88M9
Total debt$385M13$250M14$325M15$305M16$291M16
Cash & equivalents$64.9M17$91M18$40.4M19$89.1M19$144.6M19
Diluted shares24.1M24.4M24.2M24.1M24.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$116.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.31
Free cash flow it threw off
$36.53
Debt you’d be carrying
$120.8

10 shares is a claim on −$116.83 of net worth that earned you −$9.31 and generated $36.53 of cash last year, against $120.8 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 24% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.56 and $66.39 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$66.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$90.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$60.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$90.7M
Earnings Power Value
$20.56
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$47.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $60.73
The three cases
Bear0.0%$47.71
Base5.0%$60.73
Bull10.0%$76.3

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001636519-23-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001636519-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001636519-25-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001636519-23-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001636519-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001636519-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001636519-23-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001636519-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001636519-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001636519-23-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001636519-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001636519-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001636519-22-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001636519-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001636519-24-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001636519-25-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001636519-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001636519-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001636519-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)