MICROSOFT CORP
MSFTdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'
MICROSOFT CORP earns about 27% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $120.92 and $193.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $198.3B1 | $211.9B2 | $245.1B3 | $281.7B3 | $331.8B3 |
| Net income | $72.7B4 | $72.4B5 | $88.1B6 | $101.8B6 | $133.7B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $89B7 | $87.6B8 | $118.5B9 | $136.2B9 | $182.9B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $23.9B10 | $28.1B11 | $44.5B12 | $64.6B12 | $115.9B12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $65.1B7 | $59.5B8 | $74.1B9 | $71.6B9 | $67B9 |
| Total debt | $99.6B13 | $94.5B14 | $96.6B15 | $86.3B16 | $80.6B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $13.9B17 | $34.7B18 | $18.3B19 | $30.2B20 | $20.9B20 |
| Diluted shares | 7.54B | 7.47B | 7.47B | 7.46B | 7.45B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $593.57 of net worth that earned you $179.46 and generated $89.88 of cash last year, against $108.13 of debt.
It earned about 27% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 19% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $120.92 and $193.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.8%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth6.4%
- fcfBase$71.6B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.8%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth6.4%
- fcfBase$71.6B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.8%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$88.1B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $126.67 |
| Base | 6.4% | $169.3 |
| Bull | 11.4% | $210.13 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 6.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-087843 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-26-323660 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-087843 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-26-323660 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-087843 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-26-323660 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-087843 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001193125-26-323660 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-035122 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-087843 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001193125-26-323660 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-035122 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-087843 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001193125-26-323660 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)