MeritValue

MIDDLESEX WATER CO

MSEXdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MIDDLESEX WATER CO earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 102910% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $24.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$143M1$162.3M2$166.1M2$191.8M2$194.7M3
Net income$36.5M4$42.4M5$31.5M6$44.4M6$42.8M6
Operating cash flow$33M7$61.4M8$52.8M9$58.7M9$62.6M9
Capital expenditure$79.4M10$91.3M11$90.2M11$74.6M11—
Free cash flow (derived)−$46.4M7−$30M8−$37.4M9−$15.9M9—
Total debt$637.4M12$669.6M13$1.13B14$360.5M15$386.7M15
Cash & equivalents$3.53M16$3.83M17$2.39M18$4.23M19$2.8M19
Diluted shares17,60717.7M17.8M17.9M18.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$272.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.61
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$213.22

10 shares is a claim on $272.39 of net worth that earned you $23.61 last year, against $213.22 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 5%FY23 3%FY24 6%FY25 5%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+102910% shares · 5y

Share count is up 102910% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 39% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$24.24
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$42.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$38.03
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000281 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174947-25-000318 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009777 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000281 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174947-25-000318 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009777 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000281 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174947-25-000318 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009777 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000281 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174947-25-000318 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174947-23-001363 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000281 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174947-25-000318 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009777 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174947-23-001363 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000281 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174947-25-000318 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009777 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)