MeritValue

MSCI Inc.

MSCIdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MSCI Inc. earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $149.98 and $740.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.04B1$2.25B2$2.53B3$2.86B3$3.13B3
Net income$726M4$870.6M5$1.15B6$1.11B6$1.2B6
Operating cash flow$936.1M7$1.1B8$1.24B9$1.5B9$1.59B9
Capital expenditure$13.5M10$13.6M11$22.8M12$33.8M12$39.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$922.6M7$1.08B8$1.21B9$1.47B9$1.55B9
Total debt$8.32B13$9.02B14$9.02B15$9.02B16$12.4B16
Cash & equivalents$1.42B17$993.6M18$461.7M19$409.4M20$515.3M20
Diluted shares83.5M81.2M79.8M79.0M76.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$346.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$156.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$202.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,618.61

10 shares is a claim on −$346.38 of net worth that earned you $156.89 and generated $202.14 of cash last year, against $1,618.61 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 14%FY23 17%FY24 14%FY25 13%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 49% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $149.98 and $740.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$740.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.7%
  • fcfBase$1.47B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$394.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.7%
  • fcfBase$1.47B
Earnings Power Value
$149.98
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.11B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $394.9
The three cases
Bear0.0%$118.53
Base16.7%$394.9
Bull20.0%$469.34

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001408198-24-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001408198-25-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001408198-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001408198-24-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001408198-25-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001408198-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001408198-24-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001408198-25-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001408198-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001408198-24-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001408198-25-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001408198-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001408198-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001408198-24-000030 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001408198-25-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001408198-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001408198-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001408198-24-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001408198-25-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001408198-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)