Midland States Bancorp, Inc.
MSBIdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'revenue'
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. earns about 27% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.03 and $97.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $81.3M1 | $100.2M2 | $61.2M3 | $38M3 | −$124.3M3 |
| Operating cash flow | $334.4M4 | $285.8M5 | $153.4M6 | $176.5M6 | $125.7M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $2.72M7 | $3.47M8 | $8.73M9 | $6.9M9 | $5.35M9 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $331.7M4 | $282.3M5 | $144.6M6 | $169.6M6 | $120.3M6 |
| Total debt | $76.8M10 | $42.3M11 | $34.9M12 | $87.5M13 | $60.2M13 |
| Cash & equivalents | $680.4M14 | $160.6M15 | $135.1M16 | $114.8M17 | $127.8M17 |
| Diluted shares | 22.5M | 22.4M | 22.1M | 21.7M | 21.8M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $259.01 of net worth that earned you −$56.92 and generated $55.11 of cash last year, against $27.56 of debt.
It earned about 27% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 22% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.03 and $97.74 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$144.6M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$144.6M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$61.2M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $97.74 |
| Base | 0.0% | $97.74 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $120.65 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001466026-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001466026-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001466026-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001466026-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001466026-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001466026-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001466026-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001466026-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001466026-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001466026-23-000006 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001466026-24-000009 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001466026-25-000021 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001466026-26-000020 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001466026-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001466026-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001466026-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001466026-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)