MeritValue

MultiSensor AI Holdings, Inc.

MSAIdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

MultiSensor AI Holdings, Inc. earns about -199% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 606% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.27M1$5.43M2$7.4M3$5.55M3
Net income−$13.3M4−$22.3M5−$21.5M6−$11.7M6
Operating cash flow−$3.17M7−$4.55M8−$15.6M9−$8.02M9
Capital expenditure$1.6M10$1.54M11$2.67M12$1.63M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$4.77M7−$6.09M8−$18.2M9−$9.65M9
Total debt—$8.2M13——
Cash & equivalents$654,00014$1.16M15$4.36M16$24.4M16
Diluted shares5.3M6.3M20.1M37.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.14
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.58
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $8.58 of net worth that earned you −$3.14 and generated −$2.58 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-199% avg · 4y
FY22 —FY23 -257%FY24 -219%FY25 -121%

It earned an average -199% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+606% shares · 4y

Share count is up 606% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000361 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032148 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000361 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032148 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000361 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032148 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000361 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032148 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000361 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000361 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032148 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)