MeritValue

MSA Safety Inc

MSAdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MSA Safety Inc earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $47.31 and $246.15 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.4B1$1.53B2$1.79B3$1.81B3$1.87B3
Net income$21.3M4$179.6M5$58.6M6$285M6$278.9M6
Operating cash flow$199.1M7$157.5M8$92.9M9$296.4M9$363.9M9
Capital expenditure$43.8M10$42.6M11$42.8M12$54.2M12$68.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$155.3M7$114.9M8$50.1M9$242.2M9$295.4M9
Total debt$1.2B13$1.15B14$1.23B15$1.04B16$1.17B16
Cash & equivalents$140.9M17$162.9M18$146.4M19$164.6M19$165.1M19
Diluted shares39.4M39.4M39.5M39.5M39.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$347.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$70.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$75.08
Debt you’d be carrying
$297.39

10 shares is a claim on $347.43 of net worth that earned you $70.89 and generated $75.08 of cash last year, against $297.39 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 10%FY23 6%FY24 14%FY25 12%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $47.31 and $246.15 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$246.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.0%
  • fcfBase$242.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$145.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.0%
  • fcfBase$242.2M
Earnings Power Value
$47.31
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$179.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$74.45
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $145.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$62.41
Base16.0%$145.89
Bull20.0%$175.16

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000066570-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000066570-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000066570-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000066570-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000066570-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000066570-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000066570-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000066570-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000066570-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000066570-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000066570-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000066570-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000066570-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000066570-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000066570-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000066570-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000066570-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000066570-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000066570-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)