MeritValue

MORGAN STANLEY

MSdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

MORGAN STANLEY earns about 10% on invested capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $87.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.41B1$21.6B2$45.8B3$54.1B3$59.1B3
Net income$15B4$11B5$9.09B6$13.4B6$16.9B6
Operating cash flow$34B7−$6.4B8−$33.5B9$1.36B9−$17.9B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$227.4B10$233.9B11$260.5B12$284.3B13$341.7B13
Cash & equivalents$127.7B14$128.1B15$89.2B16$105.4B17$111.7B17
Diluted shares1.81B1.71B1.65B1.61B1.59B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$701.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$105.91
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$2,146.24

10 shares is a claim on $701.21 of net worth that earned you $105.91 last year, against $2,146.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 10%FY23 16%FY24 7%FY25 7%

It earned an average 10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 50% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$87.16
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$13.4B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$126.92
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000895421-24-000300 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000895421-25-000304 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000895421-26-000086 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000895421-24-000300 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000895421-25-000304 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000895421-26-000086 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000895421-24-000300 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000895421-25-000304 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000895421-26-000086 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000895421-23-000284 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000895421-24-000300 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000895421-25-000304 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000895421-26-000086 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000895421-23-000284 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000895421-24-000300 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000895421-25-000304 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000895421-26-000086 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)