Marex Group Ltd
MRXdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Marex Group Ltd earns about 20% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 4 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.63 and $178.98 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $711.1M1 | $1.24B2 | $1.59B2 | $2.02B2 |
| Net income | $91.6M3 | $128M4 | $204.7M4 | $293.9M4 |
| Operating cash flow | $225.6M5 | $735M6 | $1.16B6 | $667.5M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $3.6M7 | $9M8 | $11.7M8 | $13.1M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $222M5 | $726M6 | $1.15B6 | $654.4M6 |
| Total debt | $148.7M9 | $010 | $152M10 | $200M10 |
| Cash & equivalents | $910.1M11 | $1.48B11 | $2.56B11 | $2.88B11 |
| Diluted shares | 66.1M | 66.0M | 72.2M | 72.9M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $159.89 of net worth that earned you $40.29 and generated $89.72 of cash last year, against $27.42 of debt.
It earned about 20% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 10% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 34% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.63 and $178.98 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$726M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$726M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$166.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $178.98 |
| Base | 0.0% | $178.98 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $213.4 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001997464-25-000015 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001997464-26-000018 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001997464-25-000015 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001997464-26-000018 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001997464-25-000015 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001997464-26-000018 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001997464-25-000015 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001997464-26-000018 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001997464-25-000015 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001997464-26-000018 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001997464-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalents)