Marex Group Ltd

MRXdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Marex Group Ltd earns about 20% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 4 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.63 and $178.98 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$711.1M1$1.24B2$1.59B2$2.02B2
Net income$91.6M3$128M4$204.7M4$293.9M4
Operating cash flow$225.6M5$735M6$1.16B6$667.5M6
Capital expenditure$3.6M7$9M8$11.7M8$13.1M8
Free cash flow (derived)$222M5$726M6$1.15B6$654.4M6
Total debt$148.7M9$010$152M10$200M10
Cash & equivalents$910.1M11$1.48B11$2.56B11$2.88B11
Diluted shares66.1M66.0M72.2M72.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$159.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$40.29
Free cash flow it threw off
$89.72
Debt you’d be carrying
$27.42

10 shares is a claim on $159.89 of net worth that earned you $40.29 and generated $89.72 of cash last year, against $27.42 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
20% avg · 4y
FY22 14%FY23 16%FY24 23%FY25 25%

It earned about 20% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 4y

Share count is up 10% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 34% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.63 and $178.98 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$168.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$726M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$178.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$726M
Earnings Power Value
$23.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$166.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$37.26
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $178.98
The three cases
Bear0.0%$178.98
Base0.0%$178.98
Bull5.0%$213.4

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001997464-25-000015 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001997464-26-000018 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001997464-25-000015 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001997464-26-000018 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001997464-25-000015 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001997464-26-000018 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001997464-25-000015 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001997464-26-000018 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001997464-25-000015 (Borrowings)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001997464-26-000018 (Borrowings)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001997464-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalents)