MeritValue

Marvell Technology, Inc.

MRVLdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Marvell Technology, Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $45.1 and $88.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$4.46B1$5.92B2$5.51B3$5.77B3$8.19B3
Net income−$421M4−$163.5M5−$933.4M6−$885M6$2.67B6
Operating cash flow$819.3M7$1.29B8$1.37B9$1.68B9$1.75B9
Capital expenditure$169.2M10$206.2M11$336.3M12$284.6M12$354.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$650.1M7$1.08B8$1.03B9$1.4B9$1.4B9
Total debt$9.16B13$9.57B14$8.33B15$8.13B16$8.94B16
Cash & equivalents$613.5M17$911M18$950.8M19$948.3M20$2.64B20
Diluted shares796.9M851.4M861.3M865.5M869.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$164.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.06
Debt you’d be carrying
$102.81

10 shares is a claim on $164.52 of net worth that earned you $30.7 and generated $16.06 of cash last year, against $102.81 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY22 -1%FY23 1%FY24 -2%FY25 -3%FY26 14%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $45.1 and $88.51 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$88.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.4B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$45.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.4B
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$33.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $45.1
The three cases
Bear0.0%$15.69
Base20.0%$45.1
Bull20.0%$45.1

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001835632-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001835632-25-000057 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001835632-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001835632-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001835632-25-000057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001835632-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001835632-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001835632-25-000057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001835632-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001835632-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001835632-25-000057 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001835632-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001835632-23-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001835632-24-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001835632-25-000057 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001835632-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001835632-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001835632-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001835632-25-000057 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001835632-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)