MeritValue

MARTEN TRANSPORT LTD

MRTNdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

MARTEN TRANSPORT LTD earns about 10% on invested capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $8.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$973.6M1$1.26B2$1.13B3$963.7M3$883.7M3
Net income$85.4M4$110.4M5$70.4M6$26.9M6$17.4M6
Operating cash flow$171.2M7$219.5M8$164.4M9$134.8M9$93.5M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$57M10$80.6M11$53.2M12$17.3M12$43.3M12
Diluted shares83.4M82.0M81.4M81.5M81.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$94.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.14
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $94.17 of net worth that earned you $2.14 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 18%FY23 10%FY24 4%FY25 2%

It earned an average 10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$8.95
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$70.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.67
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005794 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005570 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005971 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005794 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005570 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005971 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005794 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005570 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005971 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004832 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005794 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005971 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)