MeritValue

MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC.

MRSHdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC. earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $78.79 and $142.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$19.8B1$20.7B2$22.7B3$24.5B3$27B3
Net income$3.14B4$3.05B5$3.76B6$4.06B6$4.16B6
Operating cash flow$3.52B7$3.47B8$4.26B9$4.3B9$5.29B9
Capital expenditure$406M10$470M11$416M12$316M12$291M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.11B7$3B8$3.84B9$3.99B9$5B9
Total debt$21.9B13$23.5B14$28.5B15$40.4B16$40.4B16
Cash & equivalents$1.75B17$1.44B18$3.36B19$2.4B19$2.69B19
Diluted shares513.0M505.0M499.0M496.0M494.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$310.02
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$84.21
Free cash flow it threw off
$101.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$818.64

10 shares is a claim on $310.02 of net worth that earned you $84.21 and generated $101.23 of cash last year, against $818.64 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 10%FY23 11%FY24 8%FY25 8%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 84% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $78.79 and $142.48 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$142.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.5%
  • fcfBase$3.99B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$96.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.5%
  • fcfBase$3.99B
Earnings Power Value
$78.79
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.76B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$76.68
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $96.71
The three cases
Bear0.0%$38.86
Base9.5%$96.71
Bull14.5%$135.75

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000062709-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000062709-25-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000062709-26-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000062709-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000062709-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000062709-26-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000062709-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000062709-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000062709-26-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000062709-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000062709-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000062709-26-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000062709-23-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000062709-24-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000062709-25-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000062709-26-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000062709-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000062709-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000062709-26-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)