Millrose Properties, Inc.

MRPdata completeness 75%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Millrose Properties, Inc. earns about -0% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$600.5M1
Net income−$209.8M2−$246.2M2$379.9M2
Operating cash flow−$865.1M3−$917.2M3$3.67B3
Capital expenditure
Free cash flow (derived)
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$04$35M4
Diluted shares166.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$352.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.88
Free cash flow it threw off
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $352.73 of net worth that earned you $22.88 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-0% avg · 3y
FY23 -4%FY24 -4%FY25 7%

It earned an average -0% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 3y

Share count is roughly flat over 3 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$44.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0002017206-26-000002 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002017206-26-000002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002017206-26-000002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002017206-26-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)