MeritValue

Moderna, Inc.

MRNAdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Moderna, Inc. earns about 25% on invested capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$18.5B1$19.3B2$6.85B3$3.24B3$1.94B3
Net income$12.2B4$8.36B5−$4.71B6−$3.56B6−$2.82B6
Operating cash flow$13.6B7$4.98B8−$3.12B9−$3B9−$1.87B9
Capital expenditure$284M10$400M11$707M12$1.05B12$192M12
Free cash flow (derived)$13.3B7$4.58B8−$3.83B9−$4.06B9−$2.07B9
Total debt———$013$590M13
Cash & equivalents$6.85B14$3.21B15$2.91B16$1.93B16$2.6B16
Diluted shares431.0M416.0M382.0M384.0M389.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$222.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$72.54
Free cash flow it threw off
−$53.08
Debt you’d be carrying
$15.17

10 shares is a claim on $222.37 of net worth that earned you −$72.54 and generated −$53.08 of cash last year, against $15.17 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
25% avg · 5y
FY21 167%FY22 53%FY23 -28%FY24 -32%FY25 -33%

It earned an average 25% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001682852-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001682852-25-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001682852-26-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001682852-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001682852-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001682852-26-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001682852-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001682852-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001682852-26-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001682852-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001682852-25-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001682852-26-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001682852-26-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001682852-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001682852-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001682852-26-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)