MeritValue

Meridian Holdings Inc./NV

MRDNdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Meridian Holdings Inc./NV earns about -25% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 59% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $50.56 and $92.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$35.2M1$43.5M1$93M2$151.1M3$182.9M3
Net income$44,0284−$1.17M4$13.7M5−$1.41M6−$92M6
Operating cash flow$2.77M7$2.21M7$23.7M8$23.9M9$25.4M9
Capital expenditure$36,75510$12,46510$5.74M11$7.16M12$6.18M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.73M7$2.19M7$17.9M8$16.8M9$19.2M9
Total debt——$013$31.2M14$17.2M14
Cash & equivalents$14.9M15$17.1M16$20.4M17$30.1M17$18.1M17
Diluted shares28.0M35.4M83.5M9.5M11.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$40.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$79.37
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.54
Debt you’d be carrying
$14.82

10 shares is a claim on $40.16 of net worth that earned you −$79.37 and generated $16.54 of cash last year, against $14.82 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-25% avg · 5y
FY22 2%FY23 -3%FY23 36%FY24 2%FY25 -160%

It earned about -25% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−59% shares · 5y

Share count is down 59% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $50.56 and $92.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$92.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$17.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$50.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$17.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $50.56
The three cases
Bear0.0%$22.2
Base20.0%$50.56
Bull20.0%$50.56

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001477932-24-000230 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-25-001897 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001477932-26-001750 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001477932-24-000230 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-25-001897 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001477932-26-001750 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001477932-24-000230 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-25-001897 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001477932-26-001750 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001477932-24-000230 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-25-001897 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001477932-26-001750 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-25-001897 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001477932-26-001750 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001477932-23-000591 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001477932-24-000230 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-26-001750 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)