Meridian Corp

MRBKdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Meridian Corp earns about 25% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.25 and $19.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$71.5M1$4.73M2$4.93M3$5.74M4$6.32M4
Net income$35.6M5$21.8M6$13.2M7$16.3M8$21.8M8
Operating cash flow$165.1M9$84.7M10$18.9M11$9.6M12$24.3M12
Capital expenditure$5.37M13$2.91M14$1.82M15$568,00016$1.73M16
Free cash flow (derived)$159.7M9$81.8M10$17M11$9.03M12$22.6M12
Total debt$41.3M17$122M17$141.2M18$98.6M19$106.7M19
Cash & equivalents$23.5M20$38.4M21$56.7M21$27.5M21
Diluted shares12.4M12.2M11.4M11.2M11.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$173.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.93
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.56
Debt you’d be carrying
$92.52

10 shares is a claim on $173.09 of net worth that earned you $18.93 and generated $19.56 of cash last year, against $92.52 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
25% avg · 5y
FY21 23%FY22 15%FY23 27%FY24 29%FY25 29%

It earned about 25% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 158% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.25 and $19.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$10.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$17M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$11.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$17M
Earnings Power Value
$19.61
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$21.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$27.13
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $11.84
The three cases
Bear0.0%$11.84
Base0.0%$11.84
Bull5.0%$16.94

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001750735-23-000024 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001750735-24-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001750735-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001750735-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001750735-23-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001750735-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001750735-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001750735-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001750735-23-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001750735-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001750735-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001750735-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001750735-23-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001750735-24-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001750735-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001750735-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001750735-23-000024 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001750735-25-000011 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001750735-26-000009 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001750735-24-000019 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001750735-25-000011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)